Statistical Analysis of 60 Boxes of Nickels

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Back in October of 2024 I started a project to assemble a complete Jefferson Nickel collection (1938 to date) just from circulated coins. I started searching boxes of circulated nickels from banks. To date, I’ve searched 60 boxes of nickels. While I don’t yet have a complete collection, I am close, I am only missing six nickels out of 194: 1938D, 1938S, 1939D, 1939S, 1943D, and 1950D.

Along the way, I’ve recorded some data about the nickels I’ve found, which I think helps to estimate the survivorship of older nickels still in circulation.

You may wish to refer to my previous post Assembling A Complete Jefferson Nickel Collection Just From Circulation, where I detail the results of each box searched.

This table shows a list of which “special” coins were found in each box, at the bottom are totals along with a per-box average for each type.

Box Date Shield Liberty Buffalo War Proof Canadian Bermuda Other Countries
1 1 3
2 1 2 Bahamas
3
4
5
6 2 1
7 1
8 2
9 1
10 1 1 1
11 1 1 1
12 1 2
13
14
15
16
17 Saudi Arabia
18 1
19 1
20 1 2
21 1
22 1
23 1
24 1 1 1
25 1
26 2
27 2 2 2
28 1 1 1
29 1 1 1 1 1
30 2 6 2 2
31 1
32 1 1
33 1 1
34 1 3 2
35 1 2
36 2 1 1
37 2
38 1
39
40 1 Swiss
41 1 1
42 1
43 1 1
44 1 1
45
46 1
47 1
48 2 1
49 2 Belgium
50 3
51 1 1 1 1
52 1 1
53 1
54 2
55 1 1 Mexico, Panama
56 1 1 2
57 1 1
58 2 1
59 2
60 1 2
60 Totals: 0 4 33 35 12 37 6
Per Box 0.00000 0.06667 0.55000 0.58333 0.20000 0.61667 0.10000

While unsurprisingly I haven’t found any Shield nickels (yet??) I have found four Liberty/V nickels.  Curiously I’ve found roughly equal numbers of Buffalo, War (Silver) and Canadian nickels. They turn up on average a little better than one every other box, although you can see there’s occasionally several per box. Also a nickels from several other countries. They occur often enough from The Bahamas to warrant its own column.

Box 30 was a particularly good box with two Liberty, six Buffalo, and two silver War nickels. Possibly part of a mini collection dump?

Next here’s a table showing how many of each silver War nickel I’ve found, along with the mintage for each year/mintmark and the number found per million minted. There’s too little data to see a uniform number found per mintage, although you can see it’s starting to get there. I’ve yet to find any 1943-D, the lowest mintage, and I only found the one 1944-S, the second lowest mintage, in box 60.

Year Mintage Found Found Per Million Minted
1942-P Silver 57873000 7 0.120954504
1942-S Silver 32900000 1 0.030395137
1943-P Silver 271165000 7 0.025814541
1943-D Silver 15294000 0
1943-S Silver 104060000 5 0.048049202
1944-P Silver 119150000 4 0.033571129
1944-D Silver 32309000 1 0.030951128
1944-S Silver 21640000 1 0.046210721
1945-P Silver 119408100 7 0.058622489
1945-D Silver 37158000 1 0.026912105
1945-S Silver 58939000 1 0.016966694
Total Mintage 869896100 35 0.04023469

 

I’ve found so many Buffalo nickels along the way that I’ve also started filling an album with them, which I am also trying to fill as a parallel project. I’m not sure it’s possible to complete such an album just from circulation, but you never know… I have found several tougher (lower mintage) dates so far.

Year Mintage Found Collection
1913 Variety 1 30,993,520 1 1
1913-D Variety 1 5,337,000
1913-S Variety 1 2,105,000 1 1
1913 Variety 2 29,858,700
1913-D Variety 2 4,156,000
1913-S Variety 2 1,290,000
1914 20,665,738
1914-D 3,912,000
1914-S 3,470,000
1915 20,987,270
1915-D 7,569,000
1915-S 1,505,000
1916 63,498,066 1 1
1916-D 13,333,000
1916-S 11,860,000
1917 51,424,019 1 1
1917-D 9,910,000
1917-S 4,193,000
1918 32,086,314 3 1
1918-D 8,362,000
1918-S 4,882,000 1 1
1919 60,868,000 1 1
1919-D 8,006,000
1919-S 7,521,000
1920 63,093,000 2 1
1920-D 9,418,000 2 1
1920-S 9,689,000 1 1
1921 10,663,000
1921-S 1,557,000
1923 35,715,000
1923-S 6,142,000
1924 21,620,000
1924-D 5,258,000
1924-S 1,437,000
1925 35,565,100 1 1
1925-D 4,450,000
1925-S 6,256,000
1926 44,693,000 1 1
1926-D 5,638,000
1926-S 970,000
1927 37,981,000 1 1
1927-D 5,730,000 1 1
1927-S 3,430,000
1928 23,411,000 1 1
1928-D 6,436,000 1 1
1928-S 6,936,000
1929 36,446,000 2 1
1929-D 8,370,000
1929-S 7,754,000
1930 22,849,000
1930-S 5,435,000
1931-S 1,200,000
1934 20,213,003 1 1
1934-D 7,480,000
1935 58,264,000 2 1
1935-D 12,092,000
1935-S 10,300,000
1936 119,001,420 5 1
1936-D 24,814,000
1936-S 14,930,000
1937 79,485,769 3 1
1937-D 17,826,000
1937-S 5,635,000 1 1
1938-D 7,020,000
Total: 1,212,995,919 34 22
Percent of album filled: 34.4

The collection column contains a 1 for each year/mintmark I have found. So far I’ve filled over a third of the album. Not bad!  I don’t think I’ll try assembling a Liberty/V nickel album. Probably not.

Part way through this project, the last 16 boxes actually, I started to record each and every nickel found, to get more detailed statistical data, 31997 nickels in total (missing 3 nickels due either to damaged dates or short rolls).

I then plotted this data for each year, relative to the number of nickels minted for that year, and also multiplied by a scaling factor relative to the total number of nickels searched. Here’s my idea… Let’s (incorrectly but simply) assume that every nickel minted stays in circulation. We know that’s not the case, but let’s start there. Let’s also assume the nickels minted are uniformly mixed.

Think of it this way: Assume all the nickels ever minted were dumped into a giant container, say a huge swimming pool, and mixed. And each box of nickels is 2,000 nickels randomly selected from it. We’d expect the number of each nickel (year/mint) found to be proportional to the number minted.

In reality, coins are continuously removed from circulation by several mechanisms. First, coins are lost. They fall on the ground, into sofa cushions, wherever. They get removed, permanently, from circulation. Another way they get removed from circulation is purposely, mostly by collections. Older (Buffalo/Liberty) nickels, silver War nickels, key dates, etc.  They also get temporarily removed from circulation as people throw their change into jars, to then later take to the bank and dump. Perhaps much later. This mechanism I suspect often accounts for many of the cool finds we see. I suppose “collection dumps” could be included in this category.

Another factor is location. I am in Maryland. In general new coins from Philadelphia are released here. I say in general because I have, rarely, gotten entire boxes of shiny new coins from Denver. But the vast majority of the time I expect they are from Philadelphia. It takes time for coins from Denver to work their way here, and even longer for those from San Francisco. So I expect much fewer of them to be found here.

By comparing what we actually find in circulation to what we “should” find, i believe we can, at least crudely, estimate what has been removed from circulation, both due to loss and willful removal by collectors, and even, also crudely, separate those two numbers.

This first graph shows these plots for Jefferson nickels from all three mints. Philadelphia is orange, Denver green, San Francisco blue. The thin trace for each is the actual data, the thicker line is a least squares regression fit.

To make viewing the graphed data easier, I’ve created three separate graphs, each showing just one mint. Below is Philadelphia. A few things are striking to me. First, you can see the substantial over-representation of nickels from recent years. 2023 in particular of course, but others as well. This quickly falls with a knee in the curve roughly around 2010, then begins to taper off as you go back further in time. Nickels from the 1990s are still plentiful, the 80s less so, and the 70s much less so. Noticeably few 60s nickels are found (except for 1964 of course!), and then by the 40s and 50s they’re really uncommon. 30s are really tough, I average one per box. The fairly low mintages in the late 40s and early to mid 50s is likely a factor as well, as well as removal of most of the silver War nickels.

You can also see the dip in 2009 which was a very low mintage year. This graph is adjusted for mintage however. So 2009 nickels are being found even lower in proportion to what you would expect, by about two thirds! This suggests to me that many have been removed from circulation by collectors. I have seen claims that most of the 2009 nickels were sent to Puerto Rico, but have never found concrete evidence this actually happened, so I am not sure if it is indeed the case. 2024 was another low mintage year, and again they are found well below their expected (low) numbers. And again, I know many collectors keep every 2024 nickel they find (I am guilty of this myself).

You can also see the dip to nearly zero during the period silver War nickels were minted, as most have been removed from circulation.

 

Next is the graph just for Denver. There’s a few interesting things here. First, the number I find is much lower than expected, since relatively speaking few make it this far east. Second, you can see a general trend of finding slightly more of them from earlier years, I suspect as they’ve had longer to work their way east. Third, there’s a big bump in the late 60s and early 70s. No nickels were minted in Philadelphia 1968-1970, and few in 1971 vs Denver, so I suspect many were shipped by the Mint to the east coast. Finally you can see the effects of the removal of silver War nickels, and the overall low mintage numbers from Denver in the late 1930s and after the war in the late 1940s.

 

And here’s the graph for San Francisco. I don’t have a lot of data as I have only found 108 nickels from San Francisco in 16 boxes, vs 6,397 from Denver and 25,470 from Philadelphia. So that makes the graph quite noisy. And there’s the huge gap 1955-1967 with no S mint mark nickels, and then only 1968-1970 after that. The 1946-S blip really sticks out, but it only represents a total of 3 nickels! So it’s likely a statistical aberration due to a small sample set.

The ratio of found vs expected to find non silver nickels from the 1940s is 0.27. For the silver War nickels, this drops to 0.024, or 8.8%. If we assume that the numbers should be the same if silver War nickels were not selectively removed from circulation, this suggests that about 91% of them have been selectively removed, or about 9 out of 10. To me, this sounds like a very believable estimate as collectors have been removing them from circulation for decades. And this is on top of what was “naturally” lost, only about 2.4% of silver War nickels minted appear to remain in circulation.

The ratio of found vs expected to find Buffalo nickels from the 1940s is 0.016. It’s difficult to estimate what the number should be for the time period 1913-1938 assuming no selective removal, other than lower than that for the 1940s. For the 1950s, it is 0.38. So maybe it’s something less than 0.20? That would also suggest that maybe 9 out of 10 Buffalo nickels have been selectively removed from circulation? Again this is a very wild guess, but probably in the ballpark. And this is on top of what was “naturally” lost, only about 1.6% of Buffalo nickels appear to remain in circulation.

60 Boxes of nickels produced 33 Buffalo nickels and 35 silver War nickels. A total of 1,213 million Buffalo nickels were minted, and 870 million silver War nickels. Looking at ratios, 33/1213=0.272 and 35/870=0.040. So it does seem that fewer Buffalo nickels survive in circulation, relatively speaking probably due to a combination of those two factors. Buffalo nickels are also easier to spot and remove from circulation, they look substantially different.

Liberty/V nickels are even more speculative, as I have only found a total of four. The total mintage was 602 million, the ratio would be 0.0066. That’s significantly less than Buffalo nickels as expected, but I would not suggest the value itself is accurate.

Of course it’s important to note that all of this is based on what is admittedly a somewhat small sample set!  I plan on continuing to search nickel boxes for some time, which will add more data. It will be interesting to see how the numbers change as more data is accumulated.

I welcome comments and suggestions on this analysis – please feel free to point out something I may have overlooked!

Assembling A Complete Jefferson Nickel Collection Just From Circulation

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Back on October 3, 2024 I started a quest to assemble a complete Jefferson nickel collection just from circulated coins, by going through boxes of rolled coins from bank. To date I’ve searched 60 boxes, and this is a summary of my results so far.

It started with these two boxes and three empty Whitman Classic Bookshelf albums:

And here’s the results of those first two boxes. It was really tough to find the early years as I expected. I was surprised to not find a 1973-D, but that’s just the luck of the draw I guess. I was not surprised to not find a 1968 (P) – I guess Whitman got a little ahead of themselves when they printed this album. 🙂 Otherwise I was able to find everything through 2023-D, but no 2024 nickels.

I did find two silver nickels, both 1943-D. Also five Canadian and one Bahamas.

Here’s the first two albums:

The next few boxes added a few nickels, though some boxes were duds with nothing of interest found. Here’s the status after five boxes: The second and third albums are full except for a 2024-D, and here’s what the first album looks like:

While it might seem surprising to be missing some nickels from the 1950s, that was a decade of fairly low nickel mintage, especially the first half. The 1955 (P) mintage is under 8 million for example. That year in fact turned out to be elusive for quite some time… 2009 and 2024 are also low mintage years. It wasn’t until box five that my first 2024-P nickels appeared. And still no 2024-D.

The sixth box produced my first Buffalo nickels, two in fact! Yes, they’re still out there in circulation. The 1936 was in nice condition, the 1915 had to be acid dated. Also a Canadian and the first 2024-D, along with four 2024-P nickels:

The seventh box yielded another war nickel – a 1943-P, as well as a 1940-S in petty nice condition, as well as a 1950 and 1952-D for the collection. Also some upgrades of previously found coins:

Box 8 had my first ever Buffalo nickel ender. There were two Buffalo nickels total in the box. Box 9 also had a Buffalo nickel in it. There’s still lots of them out in circulation!

Boxes 10, 11, and 12 were hunted one after another. The first box was amazing – a 1935 Buffalo nickel, and a 1906 Liberty / V nickel, both found by my daughter, and I found a 1943-P war nickel. This the first ever V nickel we’ve found in circulation. It’s really amazing to see coins this old still in circulation.

Besides those coins, in total we also got another Buffalo, a 1936, another 1943-P war nickel, a 1983-S proof, and three Canadians.
We also found four more nickels as part of my quest to build a complete Jefferson collection from circulation: 1940-D, 1941-S (found two), 1948-D (found two), and 1956 (found three). Along with a bunch of upgrades. Still missing 15 coins, 6 war nickels, plus some of the usual suspects. I’m most surprised about still missing a 1947-S, just the luck of the draw I guess.

Box 13 was a dud. Box 14 was a real dud – all shiny new 2023-P nickels! Box 15 was better: I found two needed nickels for the collection: 1947-S and 1951-D. I’m still missing 13 coins, 6 of which are silver war nickels.
I also found a Canadian, Bahamas, two proofs, and two nice 1963 nickels. The one upper left looks particularly nice. Any chance it is a proof? Only reason I ask is I found the other two, and this one came from the same box:

Box 16 was mostly a dud, nothing new, just a few minor upgrades to previously found nickels. Not even a Canadian nickel.

Box 17 was interesting, while I didn’t find any nickels I needed for the collection, or silver or Buffalo nickels, I found a 10 Halalat coin from Saudi Arabia:

Boxes 18 and 19 produced two new coins: a 1945-S and 1948-S. Also a few minor upgrades. And a Canadian nickel. As of this time, I still need 11 more: 38-D, 38-S, 39-D, 39-S, 42-S, 43-D, 44-D, 44-S, 45-D, 50-D, 55 (P):

Box 20 gave me a 1913 Type 1 Buffalo nickel, two proofs, and a nickel with a counterstamp, which are always fun to find:

Box 21 gave me… ready for this? 18 pennies. One roll even had a penny on the end of it. But I did also find two 1943-P silver war nickels, and a 1926 Buffalo nickel. Curiously enough there were a LOT of 2022 nickels, I’d say about half the box. There was a 2024 nickel, so the box wasn’t an old one that had been sitting on a shelf. Weird:

Boxes 22 and 23 were mediocre, one had two Canadian nickels.

Box 24 didn’t give me anything new I needed for the collection either, but there were two Buffalo nickels, one was a 1920-S which is a lower mintage, under 10 million made. Also two Canadian nickels and one from Bermuda.

Box 25 had one 1943-P silver war nickel. Box 26 had two silver war nickels, a 1942-P and a 1943-S:

Box 27 had a Buffalo nickel ender, and gave two Buffalo nickels – a 1937 and one that needed to be acid dated, as well as two silver war nickels, and two proof nickels. Nothing I needed for the Jefferson collection, but still a great box:

Box 28 had two nice enders, a 1928 Buffalo and a 1945-P silver war nickel. Plus there was a Canadian nickel in the box:

Box 29:

Box 30:

Box 31 has one no date Buffalo nickel and a 2009. That’s it:

Box 32 gave me a 1927-D Buffalo nickel and a 2005-S proof nickel, which ironically has a buffalo on its reverse as well! I like the comparison of the two nickel reverses:

Box 33 was another not very exciting box, although the 1936 Buffalo nickel was a nice find, plus a Canadian, and this 1963 which seems a little better struck than most, the rim is slightly thicker, the weight is correct:

Box 34, After a few boxes, I finally found a needed nickel, the 1942-S. Three silver war nickels in total, one no date Buffalo, two proofs, and a nice condition 1941 I’m using as an upgrade. Overall a decent box:

Compared to box 34, box 35 was meh. Just the one silver war nickel, and two Canadians. Not sure why I like finding Canadian nickels, it just means I lost a penny 🙂 Oh, and I did get a dime, so that helps blunt the loss I took with a box a few weeks ago that had 18!! pennies:

Box 36 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find two 1943-S silver war nickels, a Canadian nickel, a Bermuda nickel, a 1940-S which will be a nice upgrade for the CRH collection, and two dimes! The two dimes help make up for the box a month or two ago that had 18!!! pennies in rolls:

Box 37 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find two Buffalo nickels, a 1925 and a 1937:

Box 38 gave me a 1942-P silver war nickel. Also, not pictured, a 1983 Canadian nickel and two 1939 nickels, P of course, not D or S. Nothing I needed for the collection:

I got skunked with box 39 – nothing, Box 40 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find a 1943-P silver war nickel, a 1991 Swiss 20 rappen (which was an ender) and two dimes. Better than finding two pennies 🙂

Box 41 had nothing needed for the collection, but I did find a 1942-P silver war nickel and a 1969-S proof nickel:

Box 42 only had one Canadian nickel, nothing else of interest, and even that wasn’t interesting enough to warrant a picture.

Box 43 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find a 1937-S Buffalo nickel, and one Canadian nickel:

Box 44 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find a 1945-P silver war nickel, and one Canadian nickel:

Box 45 finally gave me a 1955 (P) nickel! That took longer than expected. I also found a 1935 Buffalo nickel. No silver war nickels or foreign:

Box 46 just had a nice condition 1974-D which was an upgrade, and a 5 cent piece from Bermuda.

Box 47 yielded nothing I needed for the collection. But I did get a 1945-P silver war nickel, and this 201?? nickel that met the business end of a power tool 🙂

Box 48 had nothing I needed for the collection. Yes, I was excited when I saw the 1938 and 1939 obverses, and they did make some nice upgrades. Plus I got two silver war nickels and the Canadian nickel:

Box 49 had nothing I needed for the collection, no Buffalo or silver war nickels. I did find two Candian nickels, and a 1 Franc coin from Belgium – my first CRH find from that country:

I found three Buffalo nickels in box 50, a 1936 and two no-date. I acid dated them, one was a 1919, the other 1920-S, both of which I need for my collection of Buffalo nickels that I am also building just from CRH (I already have a complete set). I doubt I’ll ever complete one from circulation, but I wonder how far I can get? Here’s the finds from this box:

Box 51 didn’t have anything I needed for the collection, but I did find a 1900 Liberty/V nickel (the 4th so far), a 1944-P silver war nickel, and a 1986 Canadian nickel:

Box 52 had a 1942-P silver war nickel and a Bermuda five cent piece – my 6th such coin from Bermuda in 52 boxes.

I found a 1939 in nice condition in box 53, a 1964 which looks like a proof, and a 1955 nickel, only my second found so far.

Nothing much in box 54, just two Canadian nickels.

Box 55 had nothing I needed for the collection, but I did find a 1936 Buffalo nickel, a Canadian nickel, as well as a Mexican 50 cent coin and a 5 cent coin from Panama. I believe these are the first Mexican and Panamanian coins I have found in nickel rolls. Just one 2024 nickel, well below average:

Box 56 had a 1943-S silver war nickel, a 1985-S proof, and two Canadian nickels:

In box 57 I found a 1942-P silver war nickel and a Canadian nickel. Also a few upgrades for previously found nickels:

Box 58 gave me two Buffalo nickels and a Canadian nickel. One needed to be acid dated and was a 1929, the other was a 1934, which I needed for my album I am also filling just from circulation finds:

Box 59 once again didn’t add anything new to the collection, but I did find two Buffalo nickels, two Canadian nickels, and a really nice condition 1965 nickel. One was a 1913 Type 1 (which I foolishly acid dated before checking the reverse closely enough to notice it was a Type 1), the other was a 1918-S which I needed for Buffalo nickel album I am also filling just from circulation finds. That’s worthy of its own blog post, or series of posts.

Box 60 of my quest/personal challenge to build a complete Jefferson nickel collection just from circulation produced another needed coin – the 1944-S ! I also found a very nice condition 1956 with some steps visible, a 1938 which you don’t see very often and is an upgrade, and two Canadian nickels. As of now, I’m still searching for the following nickels: 38D, 38S, 39D, 39S, 43D, 50D. The quest goes on:

And here’s what the albums look like after 60 boxes. Just six more to go! Of course, they’re the six hardest to find, the five lowest regular issue mintages, plus the lowest mintage silver war nickel, as expected. (Ignore some of the writing in the albums, I bought them used and still need to remove some old ink)

1938-1964:

1965-1989:

1990-2024:

Relative Mintages of US Small Dollar Coins And The Odds Of Finding Them In Circulation

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I was curious about the chances of finding various small dollar coins in circulation. I imported the mintage values for each year/mint/series into a spreadsheet, and created the following table.

For each coin, the mintage is shown, along with that mintage as a percentage of the total number of small dollar coins minted, which happens to be 5,222,246,560.

I then computed two other numbers for each coin:

Rank – A ranking of coins by most common (2000-P Sacagawea) to least common (2023-D Mississippi Innovation).

One Out of Every – Essentially the inverse of percentage. For example, for 2000-P Sacagawea it’s 7, which means that (roughly) 1 out of 7 coins are this. For the 1979-P Susan B. Anthony, 1/14. And so on. For clarity, values are rounded to the nearest integer. You could treat this, very crudely, as an estimate of how many coins you would need to search to find one of these.

Several caveats:

I do include the NIFC (Not Intended For Circulation) strikes. Those coins that, officially at least, were only sold to collectors. I suspect that in addition to some being dumped into circulation by individuals, the US Mint / Treasury release unsold NIFC coins into circulation. From my experience coin roll hunting, they do turn up much more often than I’d expect.

I do not include proofs. Yes, they turn up now and then, but only when someone releases one into circulation. For most years/series, 2 to 3 million proofs were minted. Fewer for recent years of Presidential and Native American coins, and far fewer for Innovation Dollars. They turn up in significantly smaller numbers than the NIFC strikes. I’m not sure it would be worth adding proofs to the table, as I think the suggested chances of finding them would be highly inflated.

Speaking of Innovation Dollars… their total mintage (to date) is 18,844,500, or 0.361% of all small dollars. If they were all in circulation (which they are not), the odds of finding one would be 1 in 277. From experience, my actual results are much worse than this. This suggests the odds for each member of the series in the table below is indeed inflated, as most never entered circulation.

The table is a mix of P and D mint coins. If you live between the two mints, perhaps you see nearly equal numbers of each. I live in MD, very close to the Philadelphia mint. Obviously, I see primarily P minted coins. D coins turn up, but in in much smaller numbers. Therefore I am much less likely to find D mint coins than the table suggests, and more likely to find P mint coins. The converse would be true for those in the western states.

Based on my penny coin roll hunting results, older D mint coins are much more likely to turn up here. This makes sense, the longer a coin is in circulation, the more time it has to work its way around the country. For the 1960s and back (wheat cents included) I tend to find roughly equal numbers of P and D cents, relative to their mintages. Fewer S mint pennies from 1968-1974, even taking into account their very low mintages, but that’s to be expected since they need to travel further.

OTOH, for recent years, D mint pennies are much less common here. They have not had enough time to work their way east. I assume this works the same way for those in the West, with respect to P mint coins.

Here’s a graph of my penny results. It’s somewhat convoluted based on how I set aside coins and count them, but I think you will get the idea:

Small dollar coins only date back to 1979, they’ve had less time to move around the country. Most of them have had very little time, this is reflected in how much more difficult they are for me to find.

To summarize:

For those coins where there were circulating business strikes, the table does an adequate job estimating how easy it is to find them, if you ignore the P/D mint issues (you live somewhere between the mints, and generally see a good mix of coins from both mints). Otherwise, you should keep in mind that it is going to be more difficult to find coins from the “other” mint than the table suggests.

For NIFC strikes, the table likely over-estimates your chances of finding coins, possibly significantly.

It might be best to treat the numbers in a relative, vs absolute, fashion.

After your done reading through this, head on over to my website Black Cat Systems and take a look at the software I write and sell. Maybe you will find something useful!

 

Year / Mint / Coin Mintage Percent One Out Of Every Rank
1979-P SBA 360,222,000 6.8978 14 3
1979-D SBA 288,015,744 5.5152 18 4
1979-S SBA 109,576,000 2.0983 48 9
1980-P SBA 27,610,000 0.5287 189 56
1980-D SBA 41,628,708 0.7971 125 34
1980-S SBA 20,422,000 0.3911 256 57
1981-P SBA 3,000,000 0.0574 1,741 108
1981-D SBA 3,250,000 0.0622 1,607 103
1981-S SBA 3,492,000 0.0669 1,495 99
1999-P 29,592,000 0.5667 176 54
1999-D SBA 11,776,000 0.2255 443 58
2000-P Sacagawea 767,140,000 14.6898 7 1
2000-D Sacagawea 518,916,000 9.9366 10 2
2001-P Sacagawea 62,468,000 1.1962 84 16
2001-D Sacagawea 70,939,500 1.3584 74 14
2002-P Sacagawea 3,865,610 0.074 1,351 91
2002-D Sacagawea 3,732,000 0.0715 1,399 95
2003-P Sacagawea 3,080,000 0.059 1,696 104
2003-D Sacagawea 3,080,000 0.059 1,696 105
2004-P Sacagawea 2,660,000 0.0509 1,963 114
2004-D Sacagawea 2,660,000 0.0509 1,963 115
2005-P Sacagawea 2,520,000 0.0483 2,072 116
2005-D Sacagawea 2,520,000 0.0483 2,072 117
2006-P Sacagawea 4,900,000 0.0938 1,066 73
2006-D Sacagawea 2,800,000 0.0536 1,865 109
2007-P Sacagawea 3,640,000 0.0697 1,435 97
2007-D Sacagawea 3,920,000 0.0751 1,332 87
2008-P Sacagawea 1,820,000 0.0349 2,869 120
2008-D Sacagawea 1,820,000 0.0349 2,869 121
2009-P Native American 39,200,000 0.7506 133 36
2009-D Native American 35,700,000 0.6836 146 51
2010-P Native American 32,060,000 0.6139 163 53
2010-D Native American 48,720,000 0.9329 107 26
2011-P Native American 29,400,000 0.563 178 55
2011-D Native American 48,160,000 0.9222 108 27
2012-P Native American 2,800,000 0.0536 1,865 110
2012-D Native American 3,080,000 0.059 1,696 106
2013-P Native American 1,820,000 0.0349 2,869 122
2013-D Native American 1,820,000 0.0349 2,869 123
2014-P Native American 3,080,000 0.059 1,696 107
2014-D Native American 2,800,000 0.0536 1,865 111
2015-P Native American 2,800,000 0.0536 1,865 112
2015-D Native American 2,240,000 0.0429 2,331 118
2016-P Native American 2,800,000 0.0536 1,865 113
2016-D Native American 2,100,000 0.0402 2,487 119
2017-P Native American 1,820,000 0.0349 2,869 124
2017-D Native American 1,540,000 0.0295 3,391 125
2018-P Native American 1,400,000 0.0268 3,730 128
2018-D Native American 1,400,000 0.0268 3,730 129
2019-P Native American 1,400,000 0.0268 3,730 130
2019-D Native American 1,540,000 0.0295 3,391 126
2020-P Native American 1,260,000 0.0241 4,145 132
2020-D Native American 1,260,000 0.0241 4,145 133
2021-P Native American 1,400,000 0.0268 3,730 131
2021-D Native American 1,260,000 0.0241 4,145 134
2022-P Native American 980,000 0.0188 5,329 138
2022-D Native American 980,000 0.0188 5,329 139
2023-P Native American 1,120,000 0.0214 4,663 136
2023-D Native American 1,120,000 0.0214 4,663 137
2007-P George Washington 176,680,000 3.3832 30 5
2007-D George Washington 163,680,000 3.1343 32 6
2007-P John Adams 112,420,000 2.1527 46 7
2007-D John Adams 112,140,000 2.1474 47 8
2007-P Thomas Jefferson 100,800,000 1.9302 52 11
2007-D Thomas Jefferson 102,810,000 1.9687 51 10
2007-P James Madison 84,560,000 1.6192 62 13
2007-D James Madison 87,780,000 1.6809 59 12
2008-P James Monroe 64,260,000 1.2305 81 15
2008-D James Monroe 60,230,000 1.1533 87 19
2008-P John Quincy Adams 57,540,000 1.1018 91 21
2008-D John Quincy Adams 57,720,000 1.1053 90 20
2008-P Andrew Jackson 61,180,000 1.1715 85 17
2008-D Andrew Jackson 61,070,000 1.1694 86 18
2008-P Martin Van Buren 51,520,000 0.9865 101 23
2008-D Martin Van Buren 50,960,000 0.9758 102 24
2009-P William Henry Harrison 43,260,000 0.8284 121 32
2009-D William Henry Harrison 55,160,000 1.0563 95 22
2009-P John Tyler 43,540,000 0.8337 120 30
2009-D John Tyler 43,540,000 0.8337 120 31
2009-P James K. Polk 46,620,000 0.8927 112 29
2009-D James K. Polk 41,720,000 0.7989 125 33
2009-P Zachary Taylor 41,580,000 0.7962 126 35
2009-D Zachary Taylor 36,680,000 0.7024 142 49
2010-P Millard Fillmore 37,520,000 0.7185 139 42
2010-D Millard Fillmore 36,960,000 0.7077 141 46
2010-P Franklin Pierce 38,220,000 0.7319 137 38
2010-D Franklin Pierce 38,360,000 0.7345 136 37
2010-P James Buchanan 36,820,000 0.7051 142 47
2010-D James Buchanan 36,540,000 0.6997 143 50
2010-P Abraham Lincoln 49,000,000 0.9383 107 25
2010-D Abraham Lincoln 48,020,000 0.9195 109 28
2011-P Andrew Johnson 35,560,000 0.6809 147 52
2011-D Andrew Johnson 37,100,000 0.7104 141 43
2011-P Ulysses S. Grant 38,080,000 0.7292 137 39
2011-D Ulysses S. Grant 37,940,000 0.7265 138 40
2011-P Rutherford B. Hayes 37,660,000 0.7211 139 41
2011-D Rutherford B. Hayes 36,820,000 0.7051 142 48
2011-P James Garfield 37,100,000 0.7104 141 44
2011-D James Garfield 37,100,000 0.7104 141 45
2012-P Chester Arthur 6,020,000 0.1153 867 64
2012-D Chester Arthur 4,060,000 0.0777 1,286 85
2012-P Grover Cleveland (1st Term) 5,460,000 0.1046 956 67
2012-D Grover Cleveland (1st Term) 4,060,000 0.0777 1,286 86
2012-P Benjamin Harrison 5,640,000 0.108 926 66
2012-D Benjamin Harrison 4,200,000 0.0804 1,243 83
2012-P Grover Cleveland (2nd Term) 10,680,000 0.2045 489 59
2012-D Grover Cleveland (2nd Term) 3,920,000 0.0751 1,332 88
2013-P William McKinley 4,760,000 0.0911 1,097 76
2013-D William McKinley 3,365,100 0.0644 1,552 100
2013-P Theodore Roosevelt 5,310,700 0.1017 983 70
2013-D Theodore Roosevelt 3,920,000 0.0751 1,332 89
2013-P William Howard Taft 4,760,000 0.0911 1,097 77
2013-D William Howard Taft 3,360,000 0.0643 1,554 101
2013-P Woodrow Wilson 4,620,000 0.0885 1,130 79
2013-D Woodrow Wilson 3,360,000 0.0643 1,554 102
2014-P Warren G. Harding 6,160,000 0.118 848 62
2014-D Warren G. Harding 3,780,000 0.0724 1,382 92
2014-P Calvin Coolidge 4,480,000 0.0858 1,166 80
2014-D Calvin Coolidge 3,780,000 0.0724 1,382 93
2014-P Herbert Hoover 4,480,000 0.0858 1,166 81
2014-D Herbert Hoover 3,780,000 0.0724 1,382 94
2014-P Franklin D. Roosevelt 4,760,000 0.0911 1,097 78
2014-D Franklin D. Roosevelt 3,920,000 0.0751 1,332 90
2015-P Harry S. Truman 4,900,000 0.0938 1,066 74
2015-D Harry S. Truman 3,500,000 0.067 1,492 98
2015-P Dwight D. Eisenhower 4,900,000 0.0938 1,066 75
2015-D Dwight D. Eisenhower 3,645,998 0.0698 1,432 96
2015-P John F. Kennedy 6,160,000 0.118 848 63
2015-D John F. Kennedy 5,180,000 0.0992 1,008 71
2015-P Lyndon B. Johnson 7,840,000 0.1501 666 60
2015-D Lyndon B. Johnson 4,200,000 0.0804 1,243 84
2016-P Richard M. Nixon 5,460,000 0.1046 956 68
2016-D Richard M. Nixon 4,340,000 0.0831 1,203 82
2016-P Gerald R. Ford 5,460,000 0.1046 956 69
2016-D Gerald R. Ford 5,040,000 0.0965 1,036 72
2016-P Ronald Reagan 7,140,000 0.1367 731 61
2016-D Ronald Reagan 5,880,000 0.1126 888 65
2020-P George H.W. Bush 1,242,275 0.0238 4,204 135
2020-D George H.W. Bush 1,502,425 0.0288 3,476 127
2018-P Introductory 502,150 0.0096 10,400 142
2018-D Introductory 582,825 0.0112 8,960 140
2019-P Delaware 472,750 0.0091 11,047 148
2019-D Delaware 479,975 0.0092 10,880 145
2019-P Pennsylvania 490,200 0.0094 10,653 144
2019-D Pennsylvania 443,800 0.0085 11,767 165
2019-P New Jersey 521,175 0.01 10,020 141
2019-D New Jersey 476,275 0.0091 10,965 146
2019-P Georgia 474,550 0.0091 11,005 147
2019-D Georgia 455,800 0.0087 11,457 150
2020-P Connecticut 436,000 0.0083 11,978 169
2020-D Connecticut 435,325 0.0083 11,996 171
2020-P Massachusetts 436,750 0.0084 11,957 167
2020-D Massachusetts 436,425 0.0084 11,966 168
2020-P Maryland 434,825 0.0083 12,010 172
2020-D Maryland 435,475 0.0083 11,992 170
2020-P South Carolina 432,850 0.0083 12,065 173
2020-D South Carolina 397,775 0.0076 13,129 178
2021-P New Hampshire 453,825 0.0087 11,507 153
2021-D New Hampshire 450,725 0.0086 11,586 162
2021-P Virginia 423,600 0.0081 12,328 174
2021-D Virginia 422,875 0.0081 12,349 175
2021-P New York 451,750 0.0087 11,560 160
2021-D New York 451,175 0.0086 11,575 161
2021-P North Carolina 405,950 0.0078 12,864 177
2021-D North Carolina 389,725 0.0075 13,400 179
2022-P Rhode Island 454,050 0.0087 11,501 152
2022-D Rhode Island 453,775 0.0087 11,508 154
2022-P Vermont 454,275 0.0087 11,496 151
2022-D Vermont 452,775 0.0087 11,534 155
2022-P Kentucky 451,900 0.0087 11,556 159
2022-D Kentucky 452,550 0.0087 11,540 156
2022-P Tennessee 452,325 0.0087 11,545 157
2022-D Tennessee 452,275 0.0087 11,547 158
2023-P Ohio 495,125 0.0095 10,547 143
2023-D Ohio 447,450 0.0086 11,671 163
2023-P Louisiana 444,625 0.0085 11,745 164
2023-D Louisiana 411,950 0.0079 12,677 176
2023-P Indiana 459,775 0.0088 11,358 149
2023-D Indiana 443,650 0.0085 11,771 166
2023-P Mississippi 371,000 0.0071 14,076 180
2023-D Mississippi 352,450 0.0067 14,817 181

sdrRewind and Black Cat ALE

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Many DXers record large swaths of the radio spectrum, and then go back to analyze the recordings, looking for signals of interest. Much of the time, they play the recordings back through their SDR software. This works, but is a slow process, no better than monitoring in real time.

Modern software can dramatically speed up the process. In this article, I’ll show how sdrRewind and Black Cat ALE can team up and speed up the process of finding and decoding ALE (Automatic Link Establishment) transmissions.

Black Cat ALE is a full featured multi-channel ALE decoder for Windows and macOS. It decodes ALE transmissions from either audio fed into a sound card input (live decoding) or from WAVE audio files. Download a copy here: https://blackcatsystems.com/software/black_cat_ale_decoder.html

sdrRewind may take a little more explanation. Rather than just play back an SDR recording file, it allows you to select any of your SDR I/Q recording files, and display a waterfall of the entire file at once, as one large waterfall, with a temporal resolution of one second per line. This is more than adequate to see the various transmissions contained in the recording. Select a signal of interest by dragging a rectangle around it with your mouse, and sdrRewind will demodulate and play back the audio, either to your speakers or a virtual audio device feeding a decoder. It can also demodulate to WAVE files, which can then be fed into your decoding software.

It’s also possible to define a set of frequencies and process several SDR I/Q files at once, generating a collection of WAVE files which can then be fed into the decoding software. In the case of Black Cat ALE, it can be configured to monitor a directory looking for new WAVE files, and automatically process them. So even if the demodulation and decoding process will take some time, you can set it up, then walk away and do something more productive while your computer is busy processing the data. Then come back when it is done and view the results.

Download a copy of sdrRewind here: https://www.blackcatsystems.com/software/sdr_iq_recording_playback_program.html

Black Cat ALE Configuration:

Select Set Directory To Monitor For New Files from the File menu, and choose the directory in which sdrRewind will store demodulated WAVE files. (Create one if you need to)

Select Monitor File Directory from the File menu. Black Cat ALE will start looking in this directory for new WAVE files. The name of these files must end in “.wav” or “.WAV”. It will ignore any files that already exist in this directory.

sdrRewind Configuration:

Set the directory for your SDR recording files, using Set Recording Directory in the File menu

Open Settings in the Edit menu, go to the Demod Directories tab, and create one or more entries for where demodulated WAVE files should be stored, including at least the directory Black Cat ALE will be monitoring. Create each entry by right clicking on the list and select Add Entry. Then right click on that entry and select Set Path and select the directory to use. Repeat as necessary. Close Settings. Go to Select Demod File Directory in the File menu and select the directory where Black Cat ALE will be monitoring for new WAVE files.

Select one of your SDR I/Q recording files from the list of files in the list on the left side of the main window. After a moment, a waterfall for the entire file will appear. Adjust the min and max dB sliders as necessary for good contrast.

Set the mode to USB.

Find an ALE signal in the waterfall and drag around it with the mouse cursor (can’t find any? Go to another I/Q file). You’ll want to make sure the lower frequency is an integer kHz value (or 0.5 kHz for those ALE channels), so edit the frequency as needed. Zero Frequency kHz in the Edit menu can quickly do this for you. Don’t forget to make sure the upper frequency is high enough to cover the entire ALE spectrum, about 3 kHz. Click the Timestamped button. sdrRewind will demodulate the signal and write it to the specified directory. When Black Cat ALE sees the file, it will open and decode it, printing out the results.

Sometimes you want to decode ALE signals from one or more specific frequencies, over an entire set of SDR I/Q recording files. sdrRewind can help with this as well.

Select Demodulate Multiple Files from the Edit menu and a new window appears.

On the left hand side is a list of your recording files, as in the main window. Select a file and basic information about that file will be displayed: the center frequency, sample rate, bandwidth, starting date and time, and length in seconds.

Demodulation settings are displayed immediately to the right of this, again as in the main window. Configure this for the frequency of interest, then select one or more I/Q files and click the Start button. Each I/Q file will be demodulated and written to a separate timestamped WAVE audio file. The entire I/Q file will be demodulated, from start to finish.

Do not make any changes to any controls in this window will files are being processed.

If you wish to demodulate several frequencies from each file, instead use the list to the right:

Right click in it and select Add Entry. A new row will be added. Set the low and high frequency limits of the IF passband, as well as (optionally) the pass band tuning (PBT). Change the mode by right clicking on it, and select a different mode from the popup menu. The same AGC settings will be used for all entries.

When you are finished, click the Start All button. Each I/Q file will again be processed, this time for each of the frequencies in the list. Click abort to stop processing additional files, however the file currently being processed will need to finish.

The Clear button can be used to quickly remove all entries from the list.

Winter 2021-2022 Snowfall

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High atop Parr’s Ridge in northern Carroll County, MD at about 850 ft elevation.

Monday November 29, 2021
Snow flurries.

Tuesday November 30, 2021
Snow flurries.

November Total: 0.0″

Monday December 27, 2021
1.0″ of snow

December Total: 1.0″

Friday January 7, 2022
6.0″ of snow



Sunday January 16, 2022
3.0″ of snow, then rain.

Monday January 17, 2022
0.5″ of snow

Thursday January 20, 2022
1.0″ of snow after rain

Friday January 28, 2022
About 1.0″, light snow all day.

January Total: 11.5″

Sunday February 13, 2022
5.8″ of snow

Monday February 14, 2022
1.0″ of dry puffy snow

February Total: 6.8″

Saturday March 12, 2022
5.5″ wet snow snow

March Total: 5.5″

Season Total: 24.8″

Shortwave Pirate Radio 2020 – A Year In Review

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To gauge shortwave pirate radio activity in 2020, I analyzed the Shortwave Pirate loggings forum of the HF Underground (http://www.hfunderground.com). A computer script parsed the message thread titles, as well as the timestamps of the messages. This information was used to produce some statistics about the level of pirate radio activity. Of course, as Mark Twain has written: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” A fourth might be pirate logging message titles. Don’t expect all the numbers to exactly add up. Still, let’s see what we can learn.

There were 15,545 messages posted to 2,400 unique threads, 29% and 10% higher than last year. Shortwave pirate activity is at historically high levels. Back in the 1990s, it was not uncommon for an entire month to go by with only a handful of pirate stations logged. If you want to know when the “golden age” of shortwave pirate radio was, I would say it is right now.

Ideally, each thread represents an individual pirate station transmission. Also ideally, each message posted to a thread represents one logging. In reality, there is some error involved. Let’s dive in.

First, we can look at the transmission mode used:

USB again leads AM, with the other modes rarely used.

Next, we can see how much activity there is for each day of the week:

Weekends (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) are still the most active, but almost a third of broadcasts were on other days of the week.

We can also look at the number of logging threads per month, to gauge activity:

Some seasonal variability, but still very active throughout the entire year.

We might be interested in knowing the best time of the day to try to hear a pirate station. Here’s a plot of the start times of the logged broadcasts, binned
by UTC hour of the day:

Evenings are most active as expected, but still lots of morning and afternoon broadcasts. The wee hours were very quiet, probably due in part to the low solar activity levels.

Here’s a graph showing the number of broadcasts per day of the year that were logged:

Halloween really sticks out this year!

Finally some graphs of the number of logging threads per frequency:

And zoomed in vertically to see the less commonly used frequencies:

The shift to the 4 and 5 MHz bands for many stations is quite evident, driven by the solar minimum conditions making 43 meters useful mostly for just long distance propagation at night. Still, it is the most active pirate band.

If you’re interested in hearing pirates, the best ways to keep up to date on what is being heard is via the HFUnderground.com message board, as well as the real time Rocket Chat. Rather than finding out about a transmission after it is over, you can tune in while it is still on the air. Also visit our Facebook group.

And of course, your loggings and other posts on the HF Underground are most welcome! This is how we find out what stations are being heard.

Shortwave Pirate Radio 2019 – A Year In Review

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To gauge shortwave pirate radio activity in 2019, I analyzed the Shortwave Pirate loggings forum of the HF Underground (http://www.hfunderground.com). A computer script parsed the message thread titles, as well as the timestamps of the messages. This information was used to produce some statistics about the level of pirate radio activity. Of course, as Mark Twain has written: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” A fourth might be pirate logging message titles. Don’t expect all the numbers to exactly add up. Still, let’s see what we can learn.

There were 12,078 messages posted to 2,186 unique threads. Activity levels are essentially flat, down slightly from 2018, but still at historically high levels. Back in the 1990s, it was not uncommon for an entire month to go by with only a handful of pirate stations logged. If you want to know when the “golden age” of shortwave pirate radio was, I would say it is right now.

Ideally, each thread represents an individual pirate station transmission. Also ideally, each message posted to a thread represents one logging. In reality, there is some error involved. Let’s dive in.

First, we can look at the transmission mode used:

USB beat out AM as the most popular mode, but both account for virtually all transmissions.

Next, we can see how much activity there is for each day of the week:

Weekends (Friday/Saturday/Sunday) are by far the most active, but the rest of the week still accounts for over a third of broadcasts.

We can also look at the number of logging threads per month, to gauge activity:

No summer slump this year, summer was in fact the most active period.

We might be interested in knowing the best time of the day to try to hear a pirate station. Here’s a plot of the start times of the logged broadcasts, binned
by UTC hour of the day:

Most activity is in the evening as expected. But there’s still a fair amount of morning/afternoon activity.

Here’s a graph showing the number of broadcasts per day of the year that were logged:

Finally some graphs of the number of logging threads per frequency:

And zoomed in vertically to see the less commonly used frequencies:

6925 is by far the most active frequency, and 43 meters is busy overall. Old Time Radio on 6770 sticks out. We’re starting to see more activity on the 4 and 5 MHz bands, most likely driven by the low solar activity conditions.

6925 is the place to be, and most activity is on 43 meters, but there’s still a fair bit elsewhere. Old Time Radio on 6770 AM really sticks out.

If you’re interested in hearing pirates, the best ways to keep up to date on what is being heard is via the HFUnderground.com message board, as well as the real time Rocket Chat. Rather than finding out about a transmission after it is over, you can tune in while it is still on the air. Also visit our Facebook group.

And of course, your loggings and other posts on the HF Underground are most welcome! This is how we find out what stations are being heard.

Shortwave Pirate Radio 2018 – A Year In Review

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To gauge shortwave pirate radio activity in 2018, I analyzed the Shortwave Pirate loggings forum of the HF Underground (http://www.hfunderground.com). A computer script parsed the message thread titles, as well as the timestamps of the messages. This information was used to produce some statistics about the level of pirate radio activity. Of course, as Mark Twain has written: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” A fourth might be pirate logging message titles. Don’t expect all the numbers to exactly add up. Still, let’s see what we can learn.

There were 12,785 messages posted to 2,216 unique threads. Activity levels are essentially flat, down slightly from 2017, but still at historically high levels. Back in the 1990s, it was not uncommon for an entire month to go by with only a handful of pirate stations logged. If you want to know when the “golden age” of shortwave pirate radio was, I would say it is right now.

Ideally, each thread represents an individual pirate station transmission. Also ideally, each message posted to a thread represents one logging. In reality, there is some error involved. Let’s dive in.

First, we can look at the transmission mode used:

AM leads USB, with the other modes much less often used.

Next, we can see how much activity there is for each day of the week:

As expected, weekends are by far the most active, but there’s still pirates to be found during the weekdays.

We can also look at the number of logging threads per month, to gauge activity:

There was a bit of a late summer / fall slump, but a very active holiday season.

We might be interested in knowing the best time of the day to try to hear a pirate station. Here’s a plot of the start times of the logged broadcasts, binned
by UTC hour of the day:

Most activity is in the evening as expected. But there’s still a fair amount of morning/afternoon activity. Not much in the wee overnight hours.

Here’s a graph showing the number of broadcasts per day of the year that were logged:

Finally some graphs of logging threads per frequency:

And zoomed in vertically to see the less commonly used frequencies:

6925 is the place to be, and most activity is on 43 meters, but there’s still a fair bit elsewhere. Old Time Radio on 6770 AM really sticks out.

If you’re interested in hearing pirates, the best ways to keep up to date on what is being heard is via the HFUnderground.com message board, as well as the real time Rocket Chat. Rather than finding out about a transmission after it is over, you can tune in while it is still on the air. Also visit our Facebook group.

And of course, your loggings and other posts on the HF Underground are most welcome! This is how we find out what stations are being heard.

Shortwave Pirate Radio 2017 – A Year In Review

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To gauge shortwave pirate radio activity in 2017, I analyzed the Shortwave Pirate loggings forum of the HF Underground (http://www.hfunderground.com). A computer script parsed the message thread titles, as well as the timestamps of the messages. This information was used to produce some statistics about the level of pirate radio activity. Of course, as Mark Twain has written: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” A fourth might be pirate logging message titles. Don’t expect all the numbers to exactly add up. Still, let’s see what we can learn.

There were 13,903 messages posted to 2,550 unique threads. Activity levels are essentially flat, but still at historically high levels. Back in the 1990s, it was not uncommon for an entire month to go by with only a handful of pirate stations logged. If you want to know when the “golden age” of shortwave pirate radio was, I would say it is right now.

Ideally, each thread represents an individual pirate station transmission. Also ideally, each message posted to a thread represents one logging. In reality, there is some error involved. Let’s dive in.

First, we can look at the transmission mode used:

AM and USB are tied for first place, with everything else essentially noise.

Next, we can see how much activity there is for each day of the week:

As one might expect, Saturday and Sunday are the big winners, with Friday in third place. But don’t give up on weekday listening! About a third of all transmissions are on a Monday through Thursday.

We can also look at the number of logging threads per month, to gauge activity:

Not much of a summer slump as in past years, activity is relatively constant throughout the year.

We might be interested in knowing the best time of the day to try to hear a pirate station. Here’s a plot of the start times of the logged broadcasts, binned
by UTC hour of the day:

Peak activity in the evening hours is clearly evident, but there is still a good amount of morning and afternoon activity, and low amounts at random overnight hours.

Here’s a graph showing the number of broadcasts per day of the year that were logged:


Looks like the peak was Labor Day weekend?

Finally some graphs of logging threads per frequency:

And zoomed in vertically to see the less commonly used frequencies:

6925 is still the big winner, and 43 meters overall is where most activity resides, but there’s still lots of pirates to be found elsewhere.

If you’re interested in hearing pirates, the best ways to keep up to date on what is being heard is via the HFUnderground.com message board, as well as the real time Rocket Chat. Rather than finding out about a transmission after it is over, you can tune in while it is still on the air. Also visit our Facebook group.

And of course, your loggings and other posts on the HF Underground are most welcome! This is how we find out what stations are being heard.